Is Israel’s plan for Gaza City a full-scale assault
In today’s newsletter: After Israeli officials announced a stepped-up military operation in the city, Palestinians and the world wait to see what happens next
Palestinians salvage items from the rubble of homes destroyed in Israeli strikes on the southern al-Zeitoun neighbourhood in Gaza City.
Good morning. Israel claims to have launched the first stages of a sweeping military operation to conquer Gaza City – the administrative heart of the strip – warning that a million people could be forced from their homes, sparking a wave of fear among residents.
In the past few nights Palestinians have described relentless bombardments, with thousands already scrambling to escape, while others are too starved or frail to evacuate.
International condemnation has poured in, with disgust at the starvation, destruction and mounting civilian toll – in Israel, hundreds of thousands of protesters have filled their streets demanding a ceasefire. Yet the military is doubling down on attacks.
Officials have made daily announcements about the plan to conquer Gaza City, but it remains unclear whether a full-scale offensive is actually afoot. For today’s newsletter I spoke with senior international reporter Peter Beaumont to get a clearer idea of Benjamin Netanyahu’s plan and how much of what he says can be trusted. That’s after the headlines.
Five big stories
- UK news | Protesters at the next mass demonstration against the ban on Palestine Action will withhold their details from officers to force en-masse processing at police stations in an effort to make it “practically impossible” to arrest everyone.
- Ukraine | Moscow threw Donald Trump’s Ukraine’s peace initiative into disarray on Thursday, insisting it must have a veto over any postwar support for the country as its forces carried out a large-scale overnight missile barrage.
- Immigration | Refugee support organisations have been forced to install safe rooms in their premises, relocate to less visible sites and in some cases close their offices in response to the threat of far-right violence, the gradation can reveal
- US news | A federal judge in Miami late on Thursday ordered the closure of the Trump administration’s notorious “Alligator Alcatraz” immigration jail within 60 days and ruled that no more detainees were to be brought to the facility while it was being wound down.
- Health | Baby food manufacturers have been given 18 months to improve the quality of their products in England amid mounting concerns that leading brands are nutritionally poor.
In depth: ‘Experienced Israeli analysts seem genuinely baffled about what’s going on’
A displaced Palestinian girl stands next to rubble and debris after an Israeli strike on at a camp for internally displaced people in Deir el-Balah.
In early August, Israel’s political‑security cabinet approved a military plan to take control of Gaza City, which they claim is a Hamas stronghold. The plan involves the call-up of roughly 60,000 reservists starting from early September.
Sources from the Gaza municipality say that the situation in Gaza City is “catastrophic”. The population is extremely weak and many are unlikely to have the strength to undergo another displacement. “We were talking to a friend in Gaza yesterday who was saying you won’t recognise me any more, I’ve lost so much weight,” said Peter Beaumont. “Some are leaving Gaza City, but other people say they just can’t do it any more.” The military claims it is displacing the population “to ensure their safety”. It has not said when the mass displacement would begin, but medics have been told to prepare by the Israeli military.
“The IDF hasn’t made preparations to accommodate the displacement of a million people. It just hasn’t. It isn’t effectively feeding and caring for the people who are already displaced,” Peter said.
Five out of six Palestinians killed by Israeli forces in Gaza have been civilians, figures from a classified Israeli military intelligence database suggest. This extreme rate of slaughter has been rarely matched in recent decades of warfare. The UN humanitarian agency has warned the Israeli plan to expand military operations in Gaza City –home to around 500,000 people – would have “a horrific humanitarian impact”.
Truth, lies, and calculated misdirection
Israeli officials have made announcements saying the plan to conquer Gaza City has been “approved”, with preliminary actions already under way. “Everything that’s been said about this operation at the moment has to be taken with a pinch of salt,” said Peter, who wrote yesterday that when dealing with Israeli officials – and Netanyahu in particular – filtering out what is true, what is lies, and what is calculated misdirection is a complicated bussiness
The talk of a large-scale IDF operation could primarily be intended to put pressure on the militant group in ceasefire talks. “All that’s actually happened is that they’re renewing the availability of reservists. All it means is that they’ve been told to be available for call-up,” said Peter. “One should always be very cautious about what is being said, especially in statements that are clearly fishing for headlines.”
On Thursday evening Netanyahu said on a visit to Israeli soldiers that he would give final approval for taking control of Gaza City, but also said he was looking to restart negotiations with Hamas to end the war on terms acceptable to Israel. “It’s pretty incoherent leadership,” says Peter.
Politically it seems like a strange move from the Israeli PM. “It’s not clear to me how the politics of it plays out,” said Peter. “Experienced Israeli analysts who have been covering security and Netanyahu for years seem genuinely baffled about what’s going on.”
One key point is that the public are against the takeover of Gaza City as they understand it will likely lead to the death of the surviving 20 hostages, with relatives describing it as a “death sentence” for them. Another is that the ceasefire deal Hamas has agreed to is essentially the same as the one Israel signalled its agreement for only weeks ago. Hamas said Israel’s plans to conquer Gaza City showed its “blatant disregard” for efforts to broker a truce.
“Normal people are getting tired,” Peter said. “Netanyahu hasn’t delivered any of the successes he claimed he would, and we’re nearly two years into a war.”
By the end of 2024 – now more than eight months ago – the economic toll of Israel’s ongoing war on Gaza had already reached $67.57bn. “The cost of maintaining it is hurting Israel economically. It’s a small country with a relatively small number of soldiers and reservists available to it. People are getting exhausted by the war,” said Peter. There are reports of suicides among soldires, and complaints that they are not getting treatment for PTSD.
“Israel’s response, as far as I can see, is just simply to be more and more aggressive,” said Peter – perhaps epitomised by a social media post from the Israeli ambassador to Canada at the end of July: “Israel will not bow to the distorted campaign of international pressure against it.”
“It’s very hard to see what victory Netanyahu could wrap himself in, which is presumably why he’s talking about pressing on with the Gaza City plan,” said Peter. “It’s about the sunk cost fallacy: ‘Just one more effort will get us to that other thing’.” Or so he hopes it will.
An impending avalanche
If the operation to conquer Gaza City does go ahead, it will lead to humanitarian disaster, said Peter. “If you think international criticism is bad at the moment, it will be an absolute avalanche,” he explained.
On 8 August, Germany announced it was halting its export of arms to Israel following announcement of the Gaza City plan, indicating a significant shift in Berlin’s staunch support for Israel, with the German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, just one of a number of European leaders to condemn the decision after Netanyahu first announced his offensive on Gaza City despite intense international pressure to reach a ceasefire agreement.
On the ground in Gaza City, people have spoken of their terror of what is to come following relentless overnight bombardments. “The house shakes with us all night long – the sound of explosions, artillery, warplanes, ambulances, and cries for help is killing us,” one resident, Ahmad al-Shanti, told AFP. “The sound is getting closer, but where should we go?”
And as all of this plays out on the world stage, international outrage is growing – indicating that perhaps world leaders will soon no longer be willing to look away.
“All the old certainties for governments – about having to try and accommodate Israeli aggression – are falling away,” Peter said. “Given where public opinion is and given how privately sick many politicians are of all this now, I think it would be very hard to see Israel avoiding big, meaningful sanctions going forward. And I think even Israelis recognise that.”
